Teabaggers finally find somebody with a reputation so bad that he is willing to destroy it further by re-opening an investigation into Obama's birth certificate. I present to you Sheriff Arpaio!

Courtesy of TPM:

Hey, remember the birthers? 

Infamous Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio does -- which is why he announced a five-person "Cold Case Posse" that will delve into the issue of President Obama's birth certificate. 

The posse follows a request by the Surprise, Arizona Tea Party, who Arpaio met with on August 17. The Surprise Tea Party believes that the long-form birth certificate released by President Obama in April -- which put the issue to rest for pretty much everyone -- could be a forgery. 

"The Surprise Tea Party is concerned," they wrote, "that no law enforcement agency or other duly constituted government agency has conducted an investigation into the Obama birth certificate to determine if it is in fact an authentic copy of 1961 birth records on file for Barack Obama at the Hawaii Department of Health in Honolulu, or whether it, or they are forgeries."

Arpaio says he has over 3000 people participating within his larger "posse" program in Maricopa County -- including celebrities like Lou Ferrigno of "The Hulk" and Steven Seagal, actor and alleged puppy-killer . But, according to WND, for the birth certificate probe there's a special "posse within the posse" made up of two former law enforcement officers, two retired lawyers and headed by retired detective Michael Zullo from Bergen County, NJ. 

You know I am fairly confident that Sheriff "pink underwear" Arpaio could not find his own ass with a flashlight and a road map.

 Oh! I guess I stand corrected.

Arizona must be SO proud!

The repeal of DADT by the numbers.

I know its small but just give it a click to enlarge it.

I have to say that seeing it laid out like this makes me very proud of my country.  Very proud indeed.

Of course not EVERYBODY shares my pride.

Courtesy of Pink News:

A Catholic woman from Massachusetts says she is so disgusted by gay people that she fears leaving her house.

You know the TRULY sad thing is that this woman, Stacy Trasancos, has quite a lot in common with gay Americans. You see it is fear of running into homophobic people like her that makes many of our homosexual brothers and sisters too afraid to leave the closet.

Gryphen's Sarah Palin checklist. A work in progress.

When Sarah Palin burst on the scene as John McCain's VP candidate and started fanning the flames of racism against Barack Obama, as well as making incredibly dangerous and fraudulent claims against our future President, I made a mental list of priorities that I wanted to help accomplish. (By the way this list evolved over time and now includes subjects that I was not even aware were coming down the pike in 2008.)

1) Stop John McCain and Sarah Palin from making it to the White House.

2) Reveal the truth behind the fantasy that Sarah Palin is a good and effective Governor.

3) Get her out of office!

4) Reveal the pathetic and controversial truth about Sarah Palin's personal mythology.

5) Provide a platform for those who know truthful stories about Palin, yet are afraid to report them to the press.

6) Direct focus on Palin, and her family's, attempts to grift money from her ignorant supporters, and report on how frivolously she spends that money.

7) Help journalists, authors, documentary makers, and anybody willing to tell the truth about Sarah Palin, make contact with sources willing to tell of their experiences with the Grizzled Mama.

8) Reveal to the widest segment of the American public possible, one of the BIGGEST, and most egregious, hoaxes ever perpetrated on them by a politician in our country's history. Babygate!

9) Draw back the cloak of secrecy that shields those that supported, and used Sarah Palin for their own nefarious reasons, to reveal them to the American public.

10) Help to make sure that another potentially dangerous politician, like Sarah Palin, George Bush, or John Edwards never gets close to the White House again. (I only include Edwards because his adultery could have made him a very easy person to blackmail into supporting policies that could have done our country great harm.)

So let's see how I've done.

1) After her defeat I received a lot of heartfelt thanks from many of the visitors here.

But in my opinion it was mostly undeserved.

I did only a small part in getting the truth out about Sarah Palin, John McCain, and the Republican party.

Others like Katie Couric, Keith Olbermann, Charlie Gibson, and even Tine Fey deserve FAR more credit than I do.  Of course ultimately the real thanks should go to Sarah Palin herself for being such an incredibly unqualified, and gaffe prone candidate.

(Half-check mark for me.)

2) I helped to found the Alaskans for Truth, and used my blog and networking, to get the truth out about Troopergate, the per-diems she paid herself to stay in her own house, the free travel vouchers she got on behalf of family members, the cronyism that riddled her administration, etc., etc., etc., to my fellow Alaskans.

(Check mark!)

3) I don't actually know how much I helped to accomplish this, but she's out! (Check mark!)

4) I don't believe there are too many people who are now unaware that the idyllic life that the Palins paint for themselves is pure mooseshit. Check mark!

5) I helped Mercede start her blog, wrote posts containing information from anonymous sources about the Palins that they could not get published in other places, helped Shailey get her story out in the National Enquirer, on this blog, and later on her own blog, tried to help Levi get his book written two years ago when it would have made a huge impact, and have maintained a blogroll linking to blogs ("Sarah Palin's Least Favorite Blogs") that have done some truly ground breaking work on getting the truth out about Klondike Kardashian. (Check mark!)

6) From SarahPAC, to "Sarah Palin's Alaska", to Dancing with the Stars, and even to Palin's 2012 Political Prick Tease, I have tried to rake away the Palin bullshit to lay bare what is REALLY taking place as often as possible.

(Half check mark. I could have done better.)

7) I have provided support to Geoffrey Dunn, Nick Broomfield, Joe McGinniss,  as well as others, and I have helped them as much as I could to make contact with people living in Wasilla, and around Alaska, that have stories to tell about the REAL Sarah Palin. I have certainly not provided ALL of their sources, and in fact all of them have made very impressive contacts of their own, but I did what I could. Some truths remain unrevealed.

(Half check mark.)


8) Most of this work has taken place right here on this blog, or on one of the blogs in the IM blogroll, but with Joe's book we are finally seeing the bizarre story reaching a much larger audience, and hopefully with the release of Fred's book , a much larger audience still.

(Pending check mark I hope to give myself soon.)

9) The Koch brothers, Fox News, the Dominionists, and the Republican party have all had their hands up the back of Sarah Palins blouse working her like a ventriloquist dummy voicing on their behalf crazy inflammatory things like "death panels," or "palling around with terrorists.'" Or ginning up racial hatred toward Barack Obama or the Muslim community.  This is clearly a work in progress, but I believe that we have made some significant connections between Palin and her puppeteers that have caused them some serious blowback and have forced them to abandon her in order to move on to less controversial marionettes.  However now that we know how they operate we can remain vigilant and help to identify the NEXT empty vessel that they fill up with their rhetorical poison.

Looking at you Rick Perry!

(Half check mark.)

10) This has ALWAYS been my ultimate goal, even while I am recognizing the possible futility of ever making it a reality.

Sarah Palin was chosen to be McCain's VP for the most superficial reasons imaginable.  She was attractive, she had faked having a Down Syndrome child to cement her pro-life position, she had hacked various polls to make herself seem popular in Alaska, and she was considered a Christian.

And that my friends was the whole package.

The fact that this occurred should have sent an electric shock of realization to the American population that candidates for the most important political positions in our country were being selected by shadowy figures who have determined that we are so simple minded that we could be seduced by a horribly unqualified pretty face, trained to read talking points off of cue cards.

If this had worked, and it came much closer to working than I think most of us want to admit, it would have furthered a continuing change in the political realities of our country that could have proved devastating.

This change has been orchestrated by the Republican party and started with Ronald Reagan, an actor who played the President, to George W. Bush, a simpleton who played a cowboy playing a President, to a Sarah Palin, a telegenic spokes model who played a Governor, who could have been groomed to play the President, once John McCain kicked the bucket served out his term and she ran in 2012. (Insert scream of horror here.)

Ultimately THIS is what the American voting population needs to be educated about, and Sarah Palin is the perfect example to illustrate that lesson. After reading what Frank Bailey, Geoffrey Dunn, and Joe McGinniss have written, it is clear that the information is now available for any of those who want to really understand how completely broken the political system is in this country.

Now all we have to do is help to encourage people to read the information that is now available, and the information that is still coming, about Sarah Palin, and then use that to vet the shiny new politicians that are just over the next horizon.

That sounds simple, right?  Yeah right.

Well I am not giving up.  After coming this far, there is NO WAY I am just walking away now.

Are you with me?

If you are then I perhaps someday this item will have a check mark as well. But not yet.

President Obama's American Jobs Act will help modernize schools. Because to SOME people schools still matter.

I thought this might give you a lift this Sunday morning as well.

(Image courtesy of The Obama Diary.)

Obamacare is working. Shh, don't tell the Republicans, it will just make their heads explode.

Courtesy of The New Republic:

Republicans made a lot of arguments against the Affordable Care Act. But perhaps none were as effective, or as seemingly plausible, as their contention that their new law would cripple Medicare Advantage. 

New evidence suggests -- surprise! -- that the argument was wrong.

Medicare Advantage is the program that gives seniors the option of enrolling in private insurance rather than the traditional, government-run program. The government pays the insurers a flat fee, per enrollee; in return, the insurers provide coverage, sometimes including benefits that traditional Medicare does not. Overall, about one in four seniors belongs to such plans. 

The policy rationale for Medicare Advantage is two-fold: To give seniors more options and to introduce some private-sector competition. The idea is that private insurers might be able to be more innovative or offer certain combinations of services that some seniors would prefer. But, for much of its history, the program (formerly known as Medicare-plus-choice) was also a form of corporate welfare.

Non-partisan studies, by the likes of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission, suggested that the government was paying the insurers too much. 

The architects of the Affordable Care Act decided, quite sensibly, to reduce those extra subsidies and use the money to offset part of the law’s cost. That’s when the Republicans, and their allies, pounced. Taking money away from the insurers, they claimed, would force insurers to charge more, limit their offerings, or pull out of the market altogether. 

It was a reasonable proposition; that’s more or less what happened back in the late 1990s, the first time government reduced the overpayments. (I argued, and still believe, such a trade-off would be worthwhile.) But new information, just released from the administration, suggests those predictions haven’t come true. 

On the contrary, the Department of Health and Human Services announced on Thursday that premiums for the plans are down and enrollment is up, well above the official projections. As the Kaiser Family Foundation has reported, this is actually the second year in a row premiums have declined. (According to HHS, premiums in 2012 will be 11.5 percent below what they were in 2010.) Meanwhile, all Medicare beneficiaries can now get preventative care without co-payments. And their exposure to prescription drug bills have declined, because the new health law is closing the infamous “donut hole” in coverage. 

So, in short, Medicare Advantage plans are becoming cheaper, slightly more people are enrolling in them, and everybody on Medicare -- even seniors in the traditional government-run program -- has better coverage than they did before.

And don't forget that the many of the most important, and positive changes, have not even taken place yet.

For instance check out what is in store in 2014:

NEW CONSUMER PROTECTIONS 

Prohibiting Discrimination Due to Pre-Existing Conditions or Gender. The law implements strong reforms that prohibit insurance companies from refusing to sell coverage or renew policies because of an individual’s pre-existing conditions. Also, in the individual and small group market, the law eliminates the ability of insurance companies to charge higher rates due to gender or health status. Effective January 1, 2014. Learn more about protecting Americans with pre-existing conditions. 

Eliminating Annual Limits on Insurance Coverage. The law prohibits new plans and existing group plans from imposing annual dollar limits on the amount of coverage an individual may receive. Effective January 1, 2014. Learn how the law will phase out annual limits by 2014. 

Ensuring Coverage for Individuals Participating in Clinical Trials. Insurers will be prohibited from dropping or limiting coverage because an individual chooses to participate in a clinical trial. Applies to all clinical trials that treat cancer or other life-threatening diseases. Effective January 1, 2014. 

You keep this in mind at all times. The Republicans do not attack "Obamacare" because it will NOT work.  They attack it because they are terrified that it WILL work.

If you always remember that it will give you the tools you will need to out argue any neo-con piece of garbage that tries to convince you that your President is not working to BETTER the lives of Americans.

And if you are unconvinced of that yourself then perhaps you need to read about this Des Moines couple's experience.

Before I close this post let me leave with a portion lifted from the last eye opening paragraph from the article cited above:

But by the time the next president is sworn in, enough people will have experienced the protections and benefits it offers that no elected official would risk his or her standing by rescinding it.

In light of the recent revelations in Joe McGinniss's book, I think THIS picture takes on a whole new meaning. Update.

Look how focused she is on the President.

If they had not sent Lieberman to essentially body check her, there is no telling what kind of fool she would have made of herself.

I wonder if THIS dismissal by Obama was not the beginning of her raging hatred toward the man?

By the way I received a phone call from the National Enquirer, who first published the excerpts and are also chasing the story from another angle, and I asked them if they felt confident they had the straight poop on Joe's book.

I was told they had managed to confirm it with somebody connected to the publishing house, so there was very little doubt that they had their facts right.

I also emailed Joe to ask if he could confirm that what has been reported is accurate.  I don't expect he can say anything about it, and if he did he would probably swear me to silence, but I felt it was worth a shot. But from what I know of Joe he would NOT allow this to be printed if it were not completely accurate.

I also asked Joe if he had sent Palin an advance copy of his book.  I don't think he did, but I do know that other authors have done so, as did the National Enquirer when they were doing the Shailey Tripp story, so its possible.

THAT would explain a lot about her recent appearance and behaviors.

Oops, I almost forgot that we still have source who HAS read the book who continues to actively leak snippets. Here is today's Doonesbury comic, which is still being censored in newspapers across the country.

Update: Okay I sorta kinda got confirmation that the Glen Rice story is in the book. Oh and my copy of "The Rogue" should be here in the next few days.

Update 2: It looks like the New York times has released their review of "The Rogue." (The review also contains an excerpt from the book.  Go ahead and count how many of the "rumors" that you first learned of on the blogs that are validated in just these three pages alone.)

This is the portion that I believe is of the most interest to the majority of those visiting here:

With the same imprecise aim he cites conspiracy theories that Ms. Palin may not be the mother of her youngest son, Trig, and questions the circumstances under which he was born. Mr. McGinniss puts forth a provocative case for doubting Ms. Palin’s account of Trig’s birth, which involved a round trip between Alaska and Texas while she was supposedly in labor. But then he comes to an indefensibly reckless conclusion: “It is perhaps the most blistering assessment of her character possible that many Wasillans who’d known Sarah from high school onward told me that even if she had not faked the entire story of her pregnancy and Trig’s birth, it was something she was eminently capable of doing.”

In Joe's defense I do have to say that he tried to get the information about babygate into his book.  But because he could not get definitive proof of the fake pregnancy, or anybody close to the situation to go on the record, he simply could NOT get it past his publisher's lawyers.

Update 2: Joe McGinniss interview will be broadcast tomorrow on the Today Show for those who are interested.

Update 3: Tweets from Savannah Guthrie:

Savannah Guthrie 
Tomorrow: our exclusive @todayshow intvw w author Joe McGinniss, who authored the new Palin book (and lived next door while researching it). 


Savannah Guthrie 
And we'll report on Todd Palin's response to the book - see you at 7a for @todayshow 

Oooh this could get REALLY good!

Bill Maher on Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and the President's speech.

(Don't worry this is the Tonight Show so Bill kept it clean.)(H/T to Politicususa.)

President Obama's speech in Richmond, Virginia yesterday: "I'm an eternal optimist."

 (Here is the transcript.)

According The Atlantic this Jobs Bill might be the best possible legislation that the President can get passed right now.

President Obama's $450 billion stimulus revolves around a plan to extend and expand the payroll tax cut. It also includes incentives for businesses to hire workers -- with a separate tax credit for hiring long-term unemployed workers -- and it extends unemployment benefits for another year. And it's all offset with a plan to reduce our long-term deficit. 

This is a tax-side stimulus to encourage business to hire and put more money in the pockets of both the employed and the unemployed. 

Expanding immediate tax stimulus for an economy with struggling demand is smart. And $450 billion is a big number. And the ideas in the speech are boldly, even pugnaciously, presented. But the heart of this plan is an extension of current policies plus a moderate expansion of certain policies. For example, we already have a payroll tax stimulus. We already have unemployment benefits. Companies already have incentives to hire. Still, the economy is growing at less than one percent and job creation is, literally, zero. 

Extending and expanding current policies is a necessary thing with economic and labor growth falling to lows since the recession. In the current political climate, this is probably as bold as the president can go. But to borrow a metaphor from football (which followed minutes the president stopped talking), this is neither a 40-yard bomb nor a straight draw for the running back. It's a checkdown pass. Carefully diagrammed, measured to bypass the defense, and just enough to move the ball downfield. 

There is much more to this article, including the details that a certain Grizzled Mama claimed were not present in the plan, so go ahead and click the link to learn more.

However even during this time of strife, and as the President prepares to wade into the Republican lion's den again to push through this legislation, he still took time to demonstrate his humanity while visiting the Arlington Cemetery. (Photos courtesy of The Obama Diary.)

What the hell is all of that screeching? Oh, I should have known!

Click picture to view interview.

Okay first off, and not to appear too shallow, but somebody needs to tell Snowdrift Snooki that whatever is on her head is raping the shit out of whatever else is on top of her head. I know it is getting a little cooler with winter coming, but we layer our CLOTHING in Alaska, we don't layer our wigs!

This "rebuttal" to the President's speech the other day is sooo ignorant that I think it would save Palin a lot of time if she just started wearing a shirt that says "I just got lobotomized" and then she would not have to spend so many minutes demonstrating how completely brain damaged she is.

At one point Palin claims that the President is playing us all for fools, and I swear she said it with a straight face, which indicates to me that she is either completely lacking in self awareness or that she is the world's best poker player.

And by the way when Palin claims that Obama is arrogant, and feels he does NOT have to explain what he is planning, that is complete bullshit. The President DID explain what he is planning, she was just TOO stupid to understand him because he was using clear and concise ENGLISH. (Oh and by the way don't think for one minute we don't realize that"arrogant" is just racist code for "uppity.")

You know I cannot speak for everybody else, but I can quite literally go the rest of my life without hearing Sarah Palin say the words "shoving down our throats."

It always makes me gag a little when she uses that phrase.

President Obama introduces "The American Jobs Act".

I thought the speech was very good, and I also thought the President demonstrated great passion as well as great exasperation that he has so little support to do the things for this country that MUST be done.

Here are the highlights courtesy of The Monitor:

Nearly $250 billion in tax relief for individuals and businesses through tax credits and a variety of tax cuts. 

140 billion to upgrade roads, bridges and schools. 

35 billion to help keep teachers, police and firefighters on the job. 

Extending and expanding a payroll tax cut that would save the typical American family $1,500 in taxes in 2012. 

A payroll tax "holiday" for employers on any new hires or wages. All companies would be eligible for the break, which would apply to up to $50 million in new payroll spending. 

Cut the payroll tax in half for businesses with payrolls of less than $5 million.

The President bent over backwards to find programs and tax cuts that the Republicans should NOT be able to vote against. But sadly for the American people that will only work if the Republicans are not actually willing to let this country crumble into disrepair for short term political gain. I have to say that I do not have much confidence that such an obvious act of treason is not exactly what the Republicans have decided to do.

Reminding the Progressives what their President accomplished when the Democrats had the majority in Congress. And the potential of what we can do in the future.

Surely they all realize that I can't do this alone.

 This is a summation of the first two years of the Obama Administration's accomplishments to remind us all about what it means to have the majority in Congress that can actually pass legislation and effect the kind of change that guided the State of our country's affair in the right path. Whether we like what the Obama Administration accomplished or not is beside the point but it takes a majority to push for something as we had witnessed during the first two years of the Obama Administration. 

This is also a reminder about why we need to reverse the power structure in 2011 by electing more and better Democrats to achieve more of what we had started in the first two years of this Administration. I understand some folks will try to undermine the progress we have made but we must highlight them so that the false narrative of some does not feel like the reality. 

To remind yourself of just how productive this President was before Democrats were caught flat footed and the Republicans captured the House, just click on this link courtesy of the Daily Kos.

If we continue to allow the Republicans to set the agenda and lose our passion for the fight, there is NO doubt that things in this country will get even worse.

Imagine what it would be like if the GOP captures the Senate AND the Presidency? 

Oh I almost forgot you don't HAVE TO imagine that, we just finished living it from 2000 to 2008. Remember?

So stand your Zumba toned ass up, dust off your khakis, put on your Birkenstocks, grab a skinny Latte from Starbucks, climb into your Prius, and get involved! Because our President and our country need you!

Is there one day from your childhood that you will simply NEVER forget? You and this young man have something in common.

Some people had to work this Labor Day weekend. Very important work.

The President visited New Jersey today, and spent time with Governor Christie surveying the damage wrought by Irene.

Courtesy of The Obama Diary:

“I know that there’s been some talk about whether there’s going to be a slowdown in getting funding out here, emergency relief. As President of the United States, I want to make it very clear that we are going to meet our federal obligations – because we’re one country, and when one part of the country gets affected, whether it’s a tornado in Joplin, Missouri, or a hurricane that affects the Eastern Seaboard, then we come together as one country and we make sure that everybody gets the help that they need. And the last thing that the residents here of Paterson or the residents of Vermont or the residents of upstate New York need is Washington politics getting in the way of us making sure that we are doing what we can to help communities that have been badly affected.”



This is what a President, a good President, does.

He goes to where people are hurting and comforts them, promises to help them, and then he does exactly that.

Could ANYBODY imagine this man worrying about what is said about him on a blog?

There are just too many more important things for him to do.

Lawrence O'Donnell presents Professor Lichtmann and his 13 Keys that prove President Obama will win reelection.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

As I am sure many of you remember I wrote about Professor Lichtmann and his formula on Tuesday.

I am still standing on my soapbox and preaching that we buckle down and make damn sure that Obama gets reelected, but it is nice to know that there is this formula out there which predicts he will succeed.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose.” Says Professor with never fail formula for predicting the winners of Presidential elections.

Picture courtesy of the Obama Diary.

Courtesy of US News:

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag. 

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman. 

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement. 

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.” 

Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama. 

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key. 
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key. 
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama. 
4. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point. 
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.” 
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama. 
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here. 
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win. 
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again. 
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key. 
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key. 
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection. 

I might disagree with the professor on his assertion that Obama lacks charisma, but other than that I think the formula makes good sense.

Now while this is very good news for us in 2012, I by NO means believe we should rest on our laurels and just expect this to all play out in our favor.

In fact I believe that the Republican are well aware that they are in trouble in 2012 and are turning to dirty tricks in order to sabotage Obama's chances for reelection.

Case in point: 

The newest political strategy is to turn the African-American community against the first black president. The idea is to get black folks to scream at the President and to threaten to withhold our support come November 2012. Due to the very high unemployment rate in the black community, this could be an easy sell. The well-paid professional propagandists don’t ask African-Americans to lay the blame for the lack of employment at the feet of the business world (which is hoarding up a couple of trillions in their rainy-day fund), or to consider the fact that governors everywhere are cutting down on the public sector workforce (comprised of large numbers of black Americans per capita), or to holler at the Republican-dominated House, which has blocked most of the job-creating programs introduced by Democrats. Instead, they want us to aim our fire solely at our President and to blame him for 30 years of white men’s policies.

And the black community is not the ONLY voting block that the GOP is working to convince to stay home in 2012, we have also seen other groups like Environmentalists, Hispanics, LGBT members, and Union members targeted for disenfranchising by the Republicans.

The problem is that Obama is not a complainer.  He actually embraces the concept first put forward by President Truman that "The buck stops here." He simply accepts that he will receive the blame for problems left unsolved, the failure of policies aggressively blocked by the Republicans, and the fact that Americans are still dying on foreign soil.

If he were Sarah Palin he would go around blaming everybody else for every problem that came along, even those that WERE his fault.  But he is President Barack Obama, and he is somebody who buckles down and does the job to the best of his ability, hoping that the voters can peer through the fog of obfuscation and see the truth of what he has accomplished.

He has far more faith in the American people than I do. I think they are going to need somebody to grab them by the lapels and slap some sense into them before sending them off to the voting booth.

We are already seeing past supporters throwing up their hands in disgust "Hey, I thought he could walk on water. He can't? Fuck it I am not going vote then!"

To those people I would say that by staying home you are not just costing the President one more vote, you are handing your vote to the Republicans. That just means they need even fewer votes to grab hold of the nation's steering wheel and again start driving us off that cliff that the President worked so hard to steer us away from.

So yes the Professor's formula should give us all confidence that President Obama has a better than even chance of staying in the White House, but we still need to get active and do our part to get out the vote and educate our friends and family on the truth of what a Republican victory would mean for this country.

You know what I'm doing. What are you doing?

Update: I thought you all might like to see a few more pictures (Courtesy of the Obama Diary) of President Obama with his most loyal constituents.

Three reality based charts you can use to shut that Right Winger in your family up for good. Assuming of course that they understand charts.

Courtesy of The Smirking Chimp:

Notes, this chart includes Clinton's last budget year for comparison. 

People who claim that Obama "tripled the deficit" are either misled or are trying to mislead.

And finally a chart that many of us may seen once or twice before in the past, but on that still remains quite relevant and informative.

Yes I know that for most of these ignorant knuckle-draggers, even making the numbers in the form of a pretty picture will not convince them that all of the country's ills are not solely the responsibility of the Islamic Socialist anti-white racist currently living in the White House.

But hey at least you can give it a shot. I mean somebody has to start somewhere, don't they?

That popping sound you hear is Teabagger heads exploding all over the country as Chris Christie commends FEMA's response to Irene.

From the MTP transcript:

MR. GREGORY: Safety first, as you've repeated over and over again. There will be a morning after kind of damage assessment. And this is going to be a big story, isn't it, Governor, up and down the seaboard? We already have local municipalities and states being so hard hit in this economy, what kind of cost, damage estimates are you expecting at this early point? 

GOV. CHRISTIE: Well, listen, I've got to imagine that the damage estimates are going to be in the billions of dollars, David, if not the tens of billions of dollars. We're going to start later this afternoon as soon as the storm clears. I'm going to personally go and start making assessments of the coastline and see what the damages are like there. And, at the same time, we need to deal with this inland flooding, which may not completely subside in New Jersey until Tuesday, some of our rivers. So the damage assessment's going to be a rolling one. The coastline will be the first we'll be able to judge. But then inland we're going to have a lot of damage, too, from these river floodings. 

MR. GREGORY: Any lessons you take away? I mean, this has been an extraordinary week, and not only for your state and this storm, but also an earthquake. As a Los Angeles guy, I was, I was not as freaked out about that, but now as an Easterner, I was. If you look at that and the coordination between a big state like yours and the federal government, are there lessons you take away from this week? Jobs well done, things that you can improve on? 

GOV. CHRISTIE: Well, certainly we're going to have an after action, you know, program, to look at what we could do better. I know there's always things that we could've done better. But what I'm proud of is that we're coordinating well with the federal government. We have FEMA folks right here on site in the operations and intelligence center you see here. They're working incredibly hard in providing things to us that we need. Our own team at the state level has put aside everything except for saying, listen, how do we best serve--making sure that human life is safe and then trying to minimize property damage? So we'll do an after action report, David, and take a look at--I know there's always things we could do better. But here's the key: The key is that we've tried to keep people fully informed, be fully transparent, to lower fear and raise confidence. And that's what we're trying to do, and I think that's the best thing a governor can do in this circumstance.

Now Christie did not personally give credit to President Obama for his response to Hurricane Tropical Storm Irene, but by giving mad props to FEMA he may as well have.

I would suggest that we will probably NOT hear Christie's name popping up as a potential GOP candidate for President any time soon. Because despite the Teabagger's seeming reverence for the idea of "common sense," they really don't like it when a Republican demonstrates any.

Now this in no way makes me a Chris Christie fan, but I can hardly wait to see his response if Eric Cantor interferes with the federal government's ability to respond to the needs in New Jersey because the House Republicans cannot find enough cuts in other federal programs to offset the cost.

Somehow I just don't think that Cantor wants to take on Governor Christie over budgetary concerns while people in his state are suffering.

Update:  Then as counterpoint to Christie, who realizes the need for government spending during a crisis like Irene, we have Michele Bachmann, occupying the space usually filled by crazed embarrassment to Christianity Pat Robertson, who seems to believe that the disaster was God's way of telling Ameircans to cut spending.


“I don’t know how much God has to do to get the attention of the politicians. We’ve had an earthquake; we’ve had a hurricane. He said, ‘Are you going to start listening to me here?’ Listen to the American people because the American people are roaring right now. They know government is on a morbid obesity diet and we’ve got to rein in the spending.”

And of course the truly sad thing for politics in this country is that Michele Bachmann is one of the favorites of the small minority of poorly educated, and historically ignorant, Teabaggers who are now holding the GOP by the balls.

This is how a leader handles a disaster and puts the minds of Americans at ease.

I swear it feels like President Obama is always prepared for just about ANYTHING that might come our way.

Of course there are some who are criticizing the response to this storm as "overkill."

But as we all know if the President had not been so completely on the ball he would have been slammed for leaving the country unprepared for the damage left in its wake.

Hell they are already giving him shit for not ending his vacation earlier, even though it is clear he was able to handle both it and spend time with his family at the same time without a hitch.

Meeting President Obama blows this young man's mind!

Okay this guy is pretty young, and perhaps he overreacts just a tad, but I have to say that his unbridled enthusiasm got me kind of giddy right along with him.

(Click here if the video will not play for you.)

Anti-immigration activist claims that President Obama is trying to end "White America" and suggests violence may be necessary to stop him.

Courtesy of Mother Jones:

Is President Obama allowing millions of Central Americans to live in the United States illegally as part of his secret plan to destroy "White America"? According to William Gheen of the group Americans For Legal Immigration, the answer is a resounding "yes." Gheen told a conservative talk radio show earlier this week that if things don't improve under "Dictator Obama," patriotic Americans may resort to possibly violent, "revolutionary means." (Gheen, as Media Matters pointed out, has been a frequent presence on Fox News and at tea party rallies). 

Here's what Gheen told talk show host Janet Mefferd: 

"What Janet Napolitano has spent most of her time doing in the last couple of months has been, one, preparing the new spy network that's available now, the new data-collecting, see everything you do online, beyond the normal terrorist list that they’re creating, they’re creating a much larger list now of people who might be troublesome here in the country. And putting out videos and propaganda telegraphing what I believe to be a conflict with White America they’re preparing for after they get another 10 or 15 million people in the country to back them up... "

"We're no longer referring to him as President Barack Obama, our national organization has made the decision and made the announcement we now refer to him as Dictator Barack Obama. That's what he is. And basically at this point, if you're looking for a peaceful, political recourse there really isn't one that we can think of, and I'm really not sure what to tell people out there than I guess they need to make decisions soon to just accept whatever comes next or some type of extra-political activities that I can't really talk about because they're all illegal and violent."

Gheen has since clarified (sort of) that he doesn't personally support violence as a political tool, but believes President Obama isn't leaving freedom-loving Americans with much a choice. 

As insane as this guy seems to be, we MUST pay attention to this kind of rhetoric. I really believe that once President Obama wins a second term that we are going to see a serious uptick in violence laden hyperbole, naked racism, and increased enlistment in militias and 2nd Amendment groups.

In other words, as bad as things are now, I really fear they could get much worse.