“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose.” Says Professor with never fail formula for predicting the winners of Presidential elections.

Picture courtesy of the Obama Diary.

Courtesy of US News:

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag. 

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman. 

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement. 

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.” 

Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama. 

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key. 
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key. 
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama. 
4. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point. 
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.” 
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama. 
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here. 
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win. 
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again. 
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key. 
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key. 
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection. 

I might disagree with the professor on his assertion that Obama lacks charisma, but other than that I think the formula makes good sense.

Now while this is very good news for us in 2012, I by NO means believe we should rest on our laurels and just expect this to all play out in our favor.

In fact I believe that the Republican are well aware that they are in trouble in 2012 and are turning to dirty tricks in order to sabotage Obama's chances for reelection.

Case in point: 

The newest political strategy is to turn the African-American community against the first black president. The idea is to get black folks to scream at the President and to threaten to withhold our support come November 2012. Due to the very high unemployment rate in the black community, this could be an easy sell. The well-paid professional propagandists don’t ask African-Americans to lay the blame for the lack of employment at the feet of the business world (which is hoarding up a couple of trillions in their rainy-day fund), or to consider the fact that governors everywhere are cutting down on the public sector workforce (comprised of large numbers of black Americans per capita), or to holler at the Republican-dominated House, which has blocked most of the job-creating programs introduced by Democrats. Instead, they want us to aim our fire solely at our President and to blame him for 30 years of white men’s policies.

And the black community is not the ONLY voting block that the GOP is working to convince to stay home in 2012, we have also seen other groups like Environmentalists, Hispanics, LGBT members, and Union members targeted for disenfranchising by the Republicans.

The problem is that Obama is not a complainer.  He actually embraces the concept first put forward by President Truman that "The buck stops here." He simply accepts that he will receive the blame for problems left unsolved, the failure of policies aggressively blocked by the Republicans, and the fact that Americans are still dying on foreign soil.

If he were Sarah Palin he would go around blaming everybody else for every problem that came along, even those that WERE his fault.  But he is President Barack Obama, and he is somebody who buckles down and does the job to the best of his ability, hoping that the voters can peer through the fog of obfuscation and see the truth of what he has accomplished.

He has far more faith in the American people than I do. I think they are going to need somebody to grab them by the lapels and slap some sense into them before sending them off to the voting booth.

We are already seeing past supporters throwing up their hands in disgust "Hey, I thought he could walk on water. He can't? Fuck it I am not going vote then!"

To those people I would say that by staying home you are not just costing the President one more vote, you are handing your vote to the Republicans. That just means they need even fewer votes to grab hold of the nation's steering wheel and again start driving us off that cliff that the President worked so hard to steer us away from.

So yes the Professor's formula should give us all confidence that President Obama has a better than even chance of staying in the White House, but we still need to get active and do our part to get out the vote and educate our friends and family on the truth of what a Republican victory would mean for this country.

You know what I'm doing. What are you doing?

Update: I thought you all might like to see a few more pictures (Courtesy of the Obama Diary) of President Obama with his most loyal constituents.

Entire Massachusetts congressional delegation participates in the "It Gets Better" project. With one notable exception.

Wow that was very uplifting!

I am really impressed that ALL of the Massachusetts delegation were able to come together, and do something so positive for the LGBT community in their state. That was really quite touching.

But you know, it felt to me that there was something missing.  Did you notice it too?

Yeah that's it!  Scott Brown, where in the hell was Scott Brown?

Did he not get the memo?

A Democratic Hill staffer with knowledge of the project told The Huffington Post that Brown was invited to participate, but he declined.

"Scott Brown has a strong record at the state and federal level against bullying and believes that all people regardless of sexual orientation should be treated with dignity and respect," said Brown spokesman Colin Reed when asked whether the senator had been asked to appear in the video. "His main focus right now is on creating jobs and getting our economy back on track."

Yeah you know I don't think that anybody's segment on that video was more than a few seconds long.  Surely THAT would not seriously take away from the time that Senator Brown needed to "create jobs" or get the "economy back on track."

I mean someone might start to think that Scott Brown hated the gays or something!

What's that?

Arline Isaacson, Co-​Chair of Massachusetts Gay and Lesbian Political Caucus stated, “Scott Brown has voted consistently against the LGBT community throughout his entire career in the Massachusetts legislature. His has not been an incidental opposition. He has voted against us loudly, proudly and unequivocally.

Unfortunately, most people don’t realize just how bad his record is:

–He voted over 25 times against marriage equality, even when 3/​4 of our legislature and many MA Republican legislators stood with us.
– He doesn’t support the Transgender Civil Rights & Hate Crimes bill
– He opposes repealing “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell”
– He opposes repealing the “Defense of Marriage Act” (DOMA)
– He has ridiculed LGBT parents as inadequate
– He supported anti-​gay policies of George W Bush & Mitt Romney

Ohhh!  I get it now.  Brown is one of THOSE guys.

You know the ones that are so insecure about their sexuality that they are constantly making sure that they don't do anything which might accidentally appear gay, like stripping down for a national publication.

Oh, yeah that's right.

Well to be fair, Brown WAS quite a bit younger during his "drop trou for Cosmo" days, and besides there is NOTHING gay about that pose. (Okay well it might be a little gay.)

Still there is some hope that Brown is not one of those idiots that goes over the top to prove they are a strapping heterosexual by posing in a vaguely inappropriate manner with their scantily clad daughters. Because that would be just....oh.

 

Oops, I spoke too soon.

You know maybe the Massachusetts LGBT community is better off WITHOUT Senator Brown's participation in their "It Gets Better" campaign.

Because I don't know about you, but he kind of gives me the heebie-jeebies.

Besides, I am still not sure whether homophobia is something you are born with, or something that you get from your environment, so perhaps it is best to keep Senator Brown away from impressionable young teenagers. At least until science is certain about the issue.

(H/T to the Huffington Post.)

Lawrence O'Donnell disusses the heart wrenching number of LGBT teen suicides in Michele Bachmann's district.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

There is no excuse for children to feel isolated because of their sexuality any more than it is okay to do so in response to their skin color or their gender.

Adults should understand that, and take great pains to be accessible to the students who are reaching out for help.

Celebration turns to sorrow during Anchorage Pridefest parade.

From ADN:

A convertible carrying the grand marshal in today's Anchorage gay Pridefest parade struck and killed a pedestrian just as the downtown parade was to begin, police say.

Police late Saturday identified the victim as 50-year-old James L. Crump of Anchorage. Crump worked as a nurse for the city's Health and Human Services department, police said.

The 1971 Triumph Stag convertible was traveling at a low speed when it hit and dragged the man, police spokesman Lt. Dave Parker said.

Police said the driver was Edith Bailey, 70, of Eagle River.

Grand Marshal Doug Frank said he was riding in the black convertible when the driver had trouble with the car's accelerator. It lurched forward, Frank said.

"It ran over a person, totally over," he said, sobbing. "This went from one of the best days of my life to the worst."

I just heard about this a few minutes ago.

This is a terribly sad end to a day that is usual full of wonderful music, imaginative floats, and amazing performers.

My heart goes out to the family of Mr. Crump and to ALL of the witnesses to this horrific event.

I have recently attended several plays at Mad Myrna's, our local gay club and theatre company, and I have come to know several members of the LGBT community.  I know this will have a devastating effect on them and I wish to extend my sincerest condolences.