o'one & done - W.H. Panic! (James Carville, Young Turks, Chris Matthews) 3 videos & Where's Hillary?

What should the White House do? Panic!
By James Carville, CNN - Contributor, Thu September 15, 2011

article source: http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/14/opinion/carville-white-house-advice/?hpt=po_r1
(CNN) -- "People often ask me what advice I would give the White House about various things.  Today I was mulling over election results from New York and Nevada while thinking about that very question.  What should the White House do now?  One word came to mind: Panic." -- James Carville

video source: http://youtu.be/C56utxT1IPI

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video source: http://youtu.be/jOKGaJKI7co

Uploaded to Youtube by TheYoungTurks on Sep 15, 2011

"Democratic Strategist James Carville had incredibly harsh, justified
 criticism for President Obama.  The Young Turks host Cenk Uygur breaks it  down."

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Trouble in River City

Is Chris Matthews getting religion? -- rfh

video source: http://youtu.be/uLcWAeGRJKM

Where's Hillary?

Hillary for president
August 05, 2011| By Christopher Sprigman  [excerpts - rfh] 
Read the full article at: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-08-05/news/ct-oped-0805-hillary-20110805_1_spending-cuts-gop-controls-hillary-clinton
    "I didn't have a high-profile role in the campaign; I worked behind the scenes drafting policy documents.  But I traveled to Denver to speak at a policy debate held during the Democratic National Convention, and spoke at a Richmond, Va., campaign event alongside Google CEO Eric Schmidt."
     "The Obama campaign ran on the hard work of many thousands of people like me.  But President Obama won't be able to depend on the same kind of help in 2012.  Because, it turns out, Hillary Clinton was right."
     "Hillary, I'm sorry for not listening to you back in 2008.  But perhaps you'll give me another chance.  Resign as secretary of state, and run against Obama in 2012.  I will work my heart out for you.  And I bet that millions of other angry Democrats will be with me."
Christopher Sprigman is a professor at the University of Virginia School of Law. 

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Immigrants ...T. Roosevelt, 1919

Theodore Roosevelt on  Immigrants, 3Jan1919 (26th President of the United States, 1901-1909) "In the first place we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else, for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin.  But this is predicated upon the man's becoming in very fact an American, and nothing but an American...  There can be no divided allegiance here.  Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn't an American at all.  We have room for but one flag, the American flag, and this excludes the red flag, which symbolizes all wars against liberty and civilization, just as much as it excludes any foreign flag of a nation to which we are hostile...  We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language...and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people." -- Theodore Roosevelt,  January 3, 1919   Comments: Theodore Roosevelt indeed wrote these words.  The passages were culled from a letter he wrote to the president of the American Defense Society on January 3, 1919, three days before Roosevelt died.  "Americanization" was a favorite theme of Roosevelt's during his later years, when he railed repeatedly against "hyphenated Americans" and the prospect of a nation "brought to ruins" by a "tangle of squabbling nationalities." He advocated the compulsory learning of English by every naturalized citizen.  "Every immigrant who comes here should be required within five years to learn English or to leave the country," he said in a statement to the Kansas City Star in 1918.  "English should be the only language taught or used in the public schools." He also insisted, on more than one occasion, that America has no room for what he called "fifty-fifty allegiance."  In a speech made in 1917 he said, "It is our boast that we admit the immigrant to full fellowship and equality with the native-born.  In return we demand that he shall share our undivided allegiance to the one flag which floats over all of us." source: http://urbanlegends.about.com/library/bl_roosevelt_on_immigrants.htm "If you were a liberal 20 years ago, without changing your positions on any issues, today you would be a conservative." -- KD, 2010 View quotes at http://harrold.org/quotes

Play  • Charlton Heston "Winning the Cultural War" 16Feb99, Austin Hall, Harvard Law School •

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bcc'd "red diaper babies", "fellow travelers" & RINOs
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"The Sun Never Sets On The British Welfare System" (Ann Coulter, We.10Aug11)

"Coming to America." -- rfh

From: kd Sent: Friday, August 12, 2011 Subject: The Sun Never Sets On The British Welfare System

article source: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45446

The Sun Never Sets On The British Welfare System

  By Ann Coulter, Human Events, We.10Aug11

     Those of you following the barbaric rioting in Britain will not have failed to notice that a sizable proportion of the thugs are white, something not often seen in this country.
     Not only that, but in a triumph of feminism, a lot of them are girls.  Even the "disabled" (according to the British benefits system) seem to have miraculously overcome their infirmities to dash out and steal a few TVs.
     Congratulations, Britain!  You've barbarized your citizenry, without regard to race, gender or physical handicap!
     With a welfare system far more advanced than the United States, the British have achieved the remarkable result of turning entire communities of ancestral British people into tattooed, drunken brutes.
     I guess we now have the proof of what conservatives have been saying since forever: Looting is a result of liberal welfare policies.  And Britain is in the end stages of the welfare state.
     In 2008, a 9-year-old British girl, Shannon Matthews, disappeared on her way home from a school trip.  The media leapt on the case -- only to discover that Shannon was one of seven children her mother, Karen, had produced with five different men.
     The first of these serial sperm-donors explained: "Karen just goes from one bloke to the next, uses them to have a kid, grabs all the child benefits and moves on."
     Poor little Shannon eventually turned up at the home of one of her many step-uncles -- whose ex-wife, by the way, was the mother of six children with three different fathers.
     (Is Father's Day celebrated in England? If so, how?)
     The Daily Mail (London) traced the family's proud Anglo ancestry of stable families back hundreds of years.  The Nazi war machine couldn't break the British, but the modern welfare state has.
     A year earlier, in 2007, another product of the new order, Fiona MacKeown, took seven of her eight children (by five different fathers) and her then-boyfriend, on a drug-fueled, six-month vacation to the Indian island of Goa.  The trip was paid for -- like everything else in her life -- with government benefits.
     (When was the last time you had a free, six-month vacation?  I'm drawing a blank, too.)
     While in Goa, Fiona took her entourage on a side-trip, leaving her 15-year-old daughter, Scarlett Keeling, in the capable hands of a 25-year-old local whom Scarlett had begun sleeping with, perhaps hoping to get a head-start on her own government benefits.  A few weeks later, Scarlett turned up dead, full of drugs, raped and murdered.
     Scarlett's estranged stepfather later drank himself to death, while her brother Silas announced on his social networking page: "My name is Si, n I spend most my life either out wit mates get drunk or at partys, playing rugby or going to da beach (pretty s**t really)."
          It's a wonder that someone like Silas, who has never worked, and belongs to a family in which no one has ever worked, can afford a cellphone for social networking.  No, actually, it's not.
     Britain has a far more redistributive welfare system than France, which is why France's crime problem is mostly a matter of Muslim immigrants, not French nationals.  Meanwhile, England's welfare state is fast returning the native population to its violent 18th-century highwaymen roots.
     Needless to say, Britain leads Europe in the proportion of single mothers and, as a consequence, also leads or co-leads the European Union in violent crime, alcohol and drug abuse, obesity and sexually transmitted diseases.
     But liberal elites here and in Britain will blame anything but the welfare state they adore.  They drone on about the strict British class system or the lack of jobs or the nation's history of racism.
     None of that explains the sad lives of young Shannon Matthews and Scarlett Keeling, with their long English ancestry and perfect Anglo features.
     Democrats would be delighted if violent mobs like those in Britain arose here -- perhaps in Wisconsin!  That would allow them to introduce yet more government programs staffed by unionized public employees, as happened after the 1992 L.A. riots and the 1960s race riots, following the recommendations of the Kerner Commission.
     MSNBC might even do the unthinkable and offer Al Sharpton his own TV show.  (Excuse me -- someone's trying to get my attention ... WHAT?)
     Inciting violent mobs is the essence of the left's agenda: Promote class warfare, illegitimate children and an utterly debased citizenry.
     Like the British riot girls interviewed by the BBC, the Democrats tell us "all of this happened because of the rich people."
     We're beginning to see the final result of that idea in Britain.  The welfare state creates a society of beasts.  Meanwhile, nonjudgmental elites don't dare condemn the animals their programs have created.
     Rioters in England are burning century-old family businesses to the ground, stealing from injured children lying on the sidewalks and forcing Britons to strip to their underwear on the street.
     I keep reading that it's because they don't have jobs -- which they're obviously anxious to hold.  Or someone called them a "kaffir."  Or their social services have been reduced.  Or their Blackberries made them do it.  Or they disapprove of a referee's call in a Manchester United​ game.
     A few well-placed rifle rounds, and the rioting would end in an instant.  A more sustained attack on the rampaging mob might save England from itself, finally removing shaved-head, drunken parasites from the benefits rolls that Britain can't find the will to abolish on moral or utilitarian grounds.  We can be sure there's no danger of killing off the next Winston Churchill​ or Edmund Burke​ in these crowds.
     But like Louis XVI, British authorities are paralyzed by their indifference to their own civilization.  A half-century of berating themselves for the crime of being British has left them morally defenseless.  They see nothing about England worth saving, certainly not worth fighting for -- which is fortunate since most of their cops don't have guns.
     This is how civilizations die. It can happen overnight, as it did in Revolutionary France​.  If Britain of 1939 were composed of the current British population, the entirety of Europe would today be doing the "Heil Hitler" salute and singing the "Horst Wessel Song."

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Ann Coulter is Legal Affairs Correspondent for HUMAN EVENTS and author of High Crimes and Misdemeanors, Slander, Treason, How to Talk to a Liberal (If You Must), Godless, If Democrats Had Any Brains, They'd Be Republicans, Guilty: Liberal "Victims" and their Assault on America, and the forthcoming Demonic: How The Liberal Mob Is Endangering America.  You can also follow Ann Coulter and Human Events on FACEBOOK. Click Here to Become a Fan: http://www.facebook.com/humaneventsmedia

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bcc'd "red diaper babies" & RINOs & 'fellow travelers'

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o'tax'n spend - 16 trillion dollar federal reserve party YOU HAVE BEEN ROBBED!! ROYALLY!

video source: http://youtu.be/o-pav_yPFkI (4m59s)

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Prepare - "The Natives Are Restless" (under-reported news)

"It is precisely this clinging to victimhood as a means of demonstrating one’s virtue and advancing one’s well-being that has led us into a society in which welfare and quotas are "civil rights," government handouts are "entitlements," and payment to girls having babies out of wedlock are "compassionate," while hard-working, ambitious people are "greedy," punishment of crime is "oppression," and an independent thinker who stands for courage and self-reliance is dismissed as an "Uncle Tom."

     -- J. Tucker Alford Source: Heroics, Letter to The American Spectator, P. 72, February, 1996.
        http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/J..Tucker.Alford.Quote.D203

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From: Lee Bellinger Sent: Friday, August 12, 2011 Subject: I'm ratcheting up to help you get ready for anything...

Recent Events Have Sharply Refocused My Attention
Urgent Dispatch from Lee Bellinger

     This time it's personal. Let me explain what recently transpired just steps from my own front door... why this incident has raised my level of concern about your personal security as well as my own... and how this and similar events have led me to today's SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT.
     I am blessed to live in the beautiful southern city of Charlotte, North Carolina.  Life is good here.  The weather is temperate, and the city has just the right balance of cosmopolitan flair and true southern charm.
     But what happened here in the Queen City just weeks ago, on an early summer weekend, came at me like a cold slap in the face.
     Charlotte police in riot gear had to quell a disturbance of hundreds of violent party crashers – leaving some 70 arrested and one dead.  Our fair city awoke the next morning to entire blocks roped off by yellow police-line tape as detectives worked to determine who spoiled our downtown family-friendly event and turned it into a crime scene of mayhem and death.
     "Chronic unemployment is spilling over into civil unrest..."
     But I don't need to see the police blotter to understand the forces at work here.  Chronic unemployment is spilling over into civil unrest, as idled workers team with those who are simply too lazy to work and act out in rage and anger against those they perceive as privileged.
     As this latest incident of social unraveling played out right here at my own doorstep, I found my attention very sharply refocused.  When it happens in your own town, you realize that yes, the you-know-what has officially hit the fan!  The need for preparedness – for having a personal "Plan B" is now a matter of urgency.
     Eerily similar scenes of rioting and violence occurred throughout the Eastern Seaboard that same weekend, from Long Beach, NY to Nashville, TN.  It's a warning sign of pent-up rage as a disturbing sense of entitlement and permanently high unemployment sinks in. Consider:

• In South Beach, Miami, permanent residents who dared to object to widespread vandalism and violence from the annual "Urban Weekend" crowd are being vilified as racists, not victims.


• In Myrtle Beach, another absolutely charming town here in the Carolinas, the annual Black Bike Week gathering led to 8 hours of violence, including multiple robberies and stabbings.  Objections by locals who had the courage to complain about bloodshed in their streets have not only fallen on deaf ears, but have been dismissed as bigotry.


• In Nashville, special police units had to break up violent, unruly crowds who had taken over a local water park, Wave Country.

How many times have we all tuned into a news report covering the latest disaster or brutal crime spree only to hear victims, neighbors, and bystanders say:

• "I never imagined it could happen here."


• "I thought these things only happened to someone else."


• "Who dreamed this could happen in my own back yard?"

     You know, I've been observing and writing about news and current events in this country for a quarter of a century now.  And, as deadly serious as things have become in our beloved nation in just the last two or three years, I like to think that I've just about seen and heard it all – that nothing is going to actually rattle me.  Then BOOM – it happened virtually in front of my very own doorstop.

"Greater self-reliance and being ready for anything is a new skill set that smart Americans must tackle and master."

Such disturbances by themselves mean little – until you actually do the work to connect the dots. Which is probably why the stodgy national media largely ignored these "local" news stories.  Yet for those of us with our eyes open, there are ample warnings out there that America's social fabric is coming undone.  Greater self-reliance and being ready for anything is a new skill set that smart Americans must tackle and master.

The Age of Preparedness is at Hand

     In the wake of the recent street riot here in Charlotte, I've already redoubled my own personal preparedness efforts.  I'll tell you more about my own personal preparations in an upcoming issue.  And because I don't want to keep you waiting for your first "official" issue of my Ready-for-Anything Report, let me spell out some simple steps you can and must begin to take now to protect your interests and those of your family:

Stash some cash: Keep at least $1,000 in small denominations around the house or other secure location.  Small bills are preferable.

Stash some silver: I strongly recommend you obtain a stash of one-ounce silver rounds or pre-1965 dimes, quarters, or half dollars from a reputable bullion dealer.  Our sister company, Independent Living Bullion (1-800-800-1865), has great products and very competitive prices.  If you don't want to obtain them from my in-house service, that's okay by me!  Any reputable bullion dealer who does not try to upsell you on overpriced "collectibles" is fine.  What matters is that you take action, not from whom you buy them.

Stash some food: I recently produced a FREE report on how Independent Living subscribers can SAVE UP TO 40% on their food bills!  If you are not following these simple steps, you are not only leaving big money on the table, you are leaving yourself at the mercy of the vulnerable food supply chain which stocks your local grocery store.  You can access this great free report right here.

Install an alarm system in your home: Home break-ins and home invasions are on the rise.  An alarm system will encourage thieves to look elsewhere for their next score.

"What you don't want to have to do is fight crowds to get to your pharmacy, or get groceries, or get water."

Get a gun for home defense: I realize that not everyone is comfortable with a gun in the house.  My suggestion is to get this essential component of home defense anyway.  The National Rifle Association offers great safety courses for beginners.  And if your state has a concealed carry law, get a permit.  Pepper spray isn't a bad idea to have in a home, car, and purse.

Load up on ammunition: The Obama Administration has taken steps to limit the public's access to ammunition.  There have been shortages as more and more people are stocking up.  I suggest you even consider obtaining an ammo reload kit.

Establish an emergency escape plan: Don't wait for an actual emergency before you work out the details of leaving your home in a hurry.  Make a checklist of travel essentials, place them in a duffel bag, and place it in a closet for immediate departure.  This can also save your life if you decide to stay home and ride it all out.  What you don't want to have to do is fight crowds to get to your pharmacy, or get groceries, or get water.  Establish an emergency meeting place for your family to regroup, and put the written plan as well as the routes in the glove box of every family car.

The Bottom Line: I Will Help You Get Ready for Anything

Personal preparedness is the wave of the future.  Being ready for anything liberates you from the herd.  You will not only sleep better at night, you will in fact be safer.

"Being ready for anything liberates you from the herd."

Yours in Savvy Preparedness, Lee Bellinger, Publisher: Independent Living and Money, Metals, and Mining 

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It's against this backdrop that I've decided to launch a brand new service – Lee Bellinger's Ready-for-Anything Report. As a subscriber to Lee Bellinger's Executive Bulletin, you're automatically being granted Charter Subscriber status, so you don't have to do a thing to sign up for it. Initially, I plan to send you a new issue once a week. As I mentioned, this new email letter is totally free, from me to you.  The Charter Issue of Lee Bellinger's Ready-for-Anything Report will land in your email in-box this week. Please watch for it. You'll find news, views, and, from time to time, product reviews – all around the topic of understanding the threats that are out there.  These include weird weather (which itself is more than enough reason for any clear thinking individual to make themselves ready for anything), man-made disasters, social chaos – any of which could require you to "bug out" of your home in five minutes flat or to "shelter in place" until the threat blows over.  The Charter Issue of Lee Bellinger's Ready-for-Anything Report will be deployed any day now... likely in the next 48 hours. We'll cover everything from civil unrest to public infrastructure failures, from natural disasters to weird weather events.  Please watch for your Premiere Issue, and accept your Charter Subscription as my free gift to you for being a loyal reader and for being with me in the cause of taking care of ourselves and our loved ones and truly being ready for anything.

© 2009-2011 Lee Bellinger's Executive Bulletin, a free supplemental email newsletter to Independent Living.
377 Rubin Center Drive • Suite 203 • Fort Mill, SC • 29708 • (877) 371-1807

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bcc'd  red diaper babies, fellow travelers, & RINOs

o'welfare - Where Oh Where to put o'who?'s picture?

 From: bb Sent: Friday, August 05, 2011 Subject:  Where Oh Where---to put obama's picture?

George  Washington, our nation's first President and leader of the  American Revolution!

Abe Lincoln, honorable leader who  pulled our nation through its darkest time!

Alexander Hamilton, founding  father, first Secretary of the Treasury and leader of the Constitutional  Convention! 

Andrew  Jackson, "Old Hickory " fought the British in New  Orleans.

Ulysses Grant, Union army general,  led the North through the Civil  War!

Ben  Franklin, genius inventor, political theorist and leading author of the  Constitution.

Finally, we have someone to put on the food  stamp!

Obama's policies have put more people on welfare than any  president before him, so this placement is most appropriate.  Unlike the  Nobel Peace Prize, for which he did nothing, this is an "honor" he richly  deserves.

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o'keynesian - 1st time since 1917 ratings: US economy downgraded! -- o'humpty dumpty

Time to resign: Treasury Secretary, Federal Reserve Director

U.S. Downgraded: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/downgrade.asp

What Does Downgrade Mean?
A negative change in the rating of a security. This situation occurs when analysts feel that the
future prospects for the security have weakened from the orginal recommendation, usually due to a material and fundamental change in the company's operations, future outlook or industry. 

Investopedia explains Downgrade
Analysts place recommendations on securities to give their clients or investors a general idea on the expected performance of that security looking forward. These recommendations are adjusted when the basis behind the recommendation changes, such as the price of the stock or newly released data in the company's financial statements.

An analyst may downgrade a stock from a buy to a sell, after the company released information about an Securities and Exchange Commission investigation into the company's operations.

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United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative

We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.

We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.

More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.

The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.
     The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for debt service--remains 'AAA'.
     We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.
Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.
     We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.
     The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements, the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.
     Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).
     Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.
     The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.
     The act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.
     We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.
     We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation.
     However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.
     Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.
     Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.
     Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.
     Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher.  Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.
     When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.
      Standard & Poor's transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.
     The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.
     On Monday, we will issue separate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors.

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